Scotland could become independent from the rest of the UK because Yes supporters are more likely to go out and vote, it has been revealed.
A new study from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey shows Yes voters are more motivated to vote, as are undecideds leaning towards yes, and that could have a decisive impact in a tight referendum vote.
The data from the Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey implies that in a tight contest come September, a stronger desire for independence may just make the difference.
The data shows that Yes voters are more likely to take part on 18 September and their greater motivation could add two per cent to the final Yes tally.
Dr. Jan Eichhorn, a research fellow at the University of Edinburgh involved in a number of in-depth referendum polling projects, said: “While the overall turnout in the referendum is expected to be high, around 70- 80 per cent, there could still be a higher turnout amongst Yes than amongst No supporters. In a tight race this could be crucial.”
That 2 per cent difference may seem slim but the SSA data from the Scottish Centre for Social Research has another figure which will be cause for concern for the pro-UK campaign Better Together: amongst undecided voters, those leaning towards No are apparently 19 per cent less likely to cast a vote than those leaning towards Yes.
Responding to the figures, a spokesperson for Better Together said: “This analysis shows that everyone who believes that we are stronger and better together as part of the UK has to campaign for it and they have to vote for it. This is the biggest decision that we will ever take as a nation. It is too important to leave to other people.”
A Yes Scotland spokesman said: “The yes movement has become the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history and it genuinely is a grassroots campaign; it’s not a top down campaign like the no side.
“The success of the campaign so far lies in the fact that hundreds of thousands of people have found no difficulty in finding the motivation to fight for a Yes vote.”
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